Effects of Dusk-to-Dawn Curfews on Spatio-Temporal Crime Displacement in North-Rift Counties of Kenya

Abstract

The use of dusk-to-dawn curfew to contain insecurity in the bandit-prone North-Rift Counties of Kenya has been a common and preferred hotspot policing strategy by law enforcement, yet its outcome has been moderate at best. The study utilized the geometric theory of crime and the theory of state society relations. This study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods. A three-level sampling procedure was used to select the respondents. First, purposive sampling was used to select the counties worst hit by crime and gazetted as hotspots based on legal notices no. 9, 10, 11, and 12 of 2023 and their subsequent extensions vide legal notices no. 167, 168, and 169. These counties were Turkana, Baringo, and West Pokot. Second, two divisions of within each county were randomly selected. Third, proportionate sampling was utilized to distribute the sample population (384) across all the divisions taking into consideration gender balance. Data collected using questionnaires and focus group discussion guides were analysed using both inferential, descriptive, and thematic analyses. The study established significant association between dusk-to-dawn curfew and spatial crime displacement; ?²(140, N = 378) = 1839.638^a , p = .0001, Cramér’s V = . 698, and temporal crime displacement; ?²(120, N = 378) = 1195.452^a, p = .0001, Cramér’s V = . 562. In conclusion, curfew displaced rather than reduced crime, indicating the need for comprehensive security strategies. The study recommends to law enforcement and policing experts an integrated policing system that incorporates community-led policing initiatives together with hotspot policing strategies such as dusk-to-dawn curfew to minimise crime displacement.